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Showing posts from September, 2022

Copper is the new Gold!

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The price of copper has fallen a third time since march and is expected to stunt the demand for copper used in almost every electronic circuit. Yet commodity experts believe that the increasing demand for copper will create a giant hole in the developing energy and communication sectors. The concerns are that if the world is going to turn electric, it is going to need a lot of copper. Hence to satisfy that level of demand could stop global growth, hype up inflation and most importantly, extinguish any hope of completing climate goals. Reasons:  It takes at least 10 years to develop a new mine and get it running, which means that the decisions producers are making today will help determine supplies for at least a decade.  M ine supply growth will peak by around 2024, with a heap of new projects at work and as existing sources dry up. That’s setting up a scenario where the world could see a historic deficit of as much as 10 million tons in 2035. Effects:  As the world goes electric, net-

Italy expected to elect its first female Prime Minister

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Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy), could become the first female prime minister in the history of Italy in an anticipated right-wing surge to the polls on Sunday. Europe's attention is trained on Rome, where this potential first is joined by fears that Meloni would restore an ideology not seen in Italy since World War II. Pollsters expect the Sunday vote to deliver a conservative coalition to parliament, with the government guided by Meloni as premier. Past: The archconservative of Italian politics, Meloni entered politics at age 15 in 1992, joining the neo-fascist Social Movement, a group with pronounced sympathy for Benito Mussolini, the country's dictator from 1925 to 1945. Fratelli d'Italia's party imagery evokes Italy's fascist past, but Meloni has rejected the associations, framing her proposed conservative coalition as a nationalist project that would recover power from Brussels. Causes: A Meloni government would represent a

Germany is secured for the winter

 Germany has filled up 90% of its reserves for the upcoming winter after Russia stopped its oil exports to Europe. This deal got secured due to the deal that was struck between the German government and Uniper and Finland-based Fortum. Current condition - Germany had set aside 15 billion USD to secure its fuel needs, out of which 1.5 billion have already been used, and the rest 2.5 billion are pulled out now to buy LNG. Germany plans to complete its 95% storage goal by November 1. From where did these new alternative sources arise -  Germany also receives natural gas via pipelines from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium. Over the weekend, Germany expects to sign contracts for the delivery of LNG  in the United Arab Emirates. What's in it for you - Shipment projects for oil along with pipelines from Norway and Netherlands are going to be put in place. German securities might start an overall buy season for oil and gas as all of the other European countries are failing to secure the

Europe gas drops

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Causes:   European natural gas futures fell to their lowest level in almost two months as nations intensify their fight to beat the energy crisis with the start of the heating season less than two weeks away. Effects:   Benchmark prices dropped as much as 8.3 percent on Monday, extending last week's decline. Germany, Britain, and others plan to spend many billions to ease their reliance on Russian imports, rescue local energy companies, and cap prices to alleviate the burden on businesses and households. Discussions on the European Commission's proposals to help reduce the impact of the crunch continue and need to be signed off by member states. The plans include raising €140 billion (S$197 billion) from energy companies' earnings, mandatory curbs on peak power demand, and increasing liquidity. Germany's decision on Friday to seize control of Russian oil major Rosneft's German oil refinery assets is seen as just the first step in an overhaul that could see Berlin pr

The Armenia-Azerbaijan War

 The roots of this war now date back to the Soviet Era itself. This conflict clearly represented the type of era which was the basis of the dissolution of the USSR from the 1980s to 1994. Repeated conflicts have arisen almost every year between 2010 and 2020. Recently sparks have again started to spread after the Covid lockdown. Causes:  The Nograno-Karabakh  is an ethnic  and territorial  conflict between Armenia  and Azerbaijan  over the disputed region of Nograno-Karabakh , inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians,   and seven surrounding districts , occupied chiefly by Azerbaijanis  until their war during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War.  The conflict has its origins in the early 20th century, but the present conflict began in 1988 when the Karabakh Armenians demanded transferring Karabakh  from Soviet Azerbaijan  to Soviet Armenia.  The conflict escalated into a full-scale war  in the early 1990s which later transformed into a low-intensity conflict  until a 4-day   escalation  in Apri

The Ethereum Merge

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 Now you might have seen a lot of articles lately giving out information on the Ethereum Merge which is going to happen on the 14/15th of September 2022. If you are still confused about what this is or if is it going to affect you, then this post is especially for you. The joining of Ethereum's Proof of Stake Beacon Chain to Ethereum's Mainnet to transition the Ethereum Blockchain off the Proof of Work legacy  What is the Ethereum Mainnet and the Ethereum Blockchain - Ethereum Mainnet is a decentralized platform for building tech and  Mainnet is  the primary public Ethereum production blockchain , where actual-value transactions occur on the distributed ledger.   Apps and tech get developed over this blockchain whose further transactions are facilitated and maintained by Ethereum. What was the Proof of Work - The earlier mathematical concept of solving a problem to access information, which was used by cryptocurrencies and other decentralized platforms by implying the SHA-256

News from the Gulf

 Since oil prices have crashed since their peak, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been actively reducing oil production to increase its net profit margin. Causes:  Crude prices surged above $120 a barrel after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, boosting economies  and stock markets  across the Persian Gulf. Since then, a strengthening dollar and traders’ concerns about slowing global growth have led to a drop to around $90. Now that the US & Europe is forcing Saud to increase the production, the relations have become even more delicate   Effects: This dropping in prices resulted in companies refining and exporting the oil experiencing losses, in addition to the ever-increasing inflation and strengthening of the dollar. The OPEC has reduced oil production by 100,000 barrels a day (equivalent to 0.1% of global oil consumption) adding a factor to the recent Market rally even when the FED is increasing the rates. The prince of Saudi Arabia has warned

Legendary China Bets Unwind as Buffett, SoftBank Sell

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Causes:   T hey’ve been some of the most profitable Chinese stock investments of all time: Tencent Holdings Ltd., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., and BYD Co. But now big-name investors who’ve made billions from these shares are taking money off the table, underscoring growing angst over the prospects for China’s biggest companies as President Xi Jinping tightens the government’s grip on the private sector and the economy falters under persistent Covid lockdowns. Effects:   In the newest growth, Tencent shares price of $7.6 billion appeared in Hong Kong’s clearing and settlement system, sometimes a precursor to offloading inventory.  Naspers   Ltd. — which invests by way of its Dutch unit  Prosus   NV   — is the more than likely vendor as a result of it’s one of many few buyers that may deal with such a large transaction and has stated it should minimize its Tencent stake to fund buybacks. That comes a month after Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. stated it unloaded an infinite slug of Alibaba,

Dollar Pain Spreads

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Developed economies are taking a hit from the dollar’s appreciation to multi-decade highs in ways that were once more familiar to their emerging market peers. Causes: Fuelled by the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening cycle in more than a generation, the stronger greenback pushes rival currencies lower, driving up the cost of imported goods, constricting financial conditions, and feeding inflation in other economies. Effects : That’s ratcheting pressure on other central banks to raise interest rates just as an energy crisis and spiraling consumer prices hobble Europe’s economies, and increases in borrowing costs cool housing markets in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. Yet their ability to influence the dollar’s strength is limited, meaning there’s little prospect for near-term relief. While global ripples from Fed tightening aren’t new, this is the first episode in recent years where serious dollar strength has been more notable against developed-nation currencies as a gro

Shell's BIG Mess-Up

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In the more than a quarter century since Shell Plc left Ogoniland in southern Nigeria, oil has continued to ooze from dormant wellheads and active pipelines, leaving the 386-square mile kingdom’s wetlands shimmering with a greasy rainbow sheen, its once-lush mangroves coated in crude, well-water smelling of benzene and farmlands charred and barren. Problems:  In a scathing review of the Ogoniland cleanup efforts, led by the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project, or Hyprep, the UN body paints a picture of rampant mismanagement, incompetence, waste and lack of transparency. It highlights the haphazard storage of oil-soaked soil that lets chemicals seep into uncontaminated grounds and creeks, contracts awarded to firms with little environmental-cleanup experience and proposals for millions of dollars in unneeded work. Effects:  This has rendered the most important job of removing those deadly chemicals, and stopping the leakages ineffective. Moreover, due to a lack of organisation and

Arctic Trade Advantage

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 The evil of climate change is well known to every man by now, either through the news or the effects seen them. But countries have now started to now look at the advantages of Climate Change for their own economic advantage.  The new Cold War between the West and the Russia-China axis hardly gets colder than the Arctic, which recent events show has emerged as a new battleground of geostrategic competition. In the joint statement by China and Russia — released just weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — was a pledge for the duo to intensify the development of the Arctic, a region rapidly opening up to economic exploitation thanks to global warming. The two also committed to strengthening cooperation on the development and use of Arctic routes. Controversies Attached: The   Arctic is well considered an oil and energy powerhouse, and Russia, which controls more than 50% of the coastline, is now looking to exploit it. China, on the other hand, is looking for much shorter trade routes

Yen at Risk

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The yen slumped past the key psychological level of 140 per dollar for the first time in almost a quarter of a century, a move that may extend as the divergence between the US and Japanese monetary policy widens. Causes: The worst performer this year among Group-of-10 currencies -- reflects a growing split between the Bank of Japan, which is keeping policy loose to bolster the economy, and a Federal Reserve that has been at pains to stress its inflation-fighting bona fides.  Effects: Fueled in large part by the rise in Treasury yields, the yen fell as much as 0.9% against the dollar Thursday, extending its year-to-date decline to almost 18%. And options markets show traders are betting there might be more to come, with pricing skewed toward contracts that will pay off if the dollar-yen keeps rising. The resulting widening yield gap between the US and Japan has been a big driver of yen weakness, as it encourages investors to seek out the more attractive returns in dollar assets from mo

Capping of the Russian Oil

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  Group of Seven finance ministers will hold talks this week on allowing global purchases of Russian oil at a capped price with the US hoping to ease energy market pressures and slash overall Russian revenues from crude.  The European Union, UK and Switzerland all plan to ban their companies from providing those services for Russian oil shipments beginning in December. Causes: With the decades of high inflation in Europe and the USA due to oil prices and basic consumer utilities, this was bound to happen. By setting a "Price Cap" the US expects nations other than the European Union to also follow them by buying oil from other OPEC resources. This is explained by the following flowchart. --> Price Cap imposed. --> Countries in the EU start to buy Russian oil if sold at that price cap. --> If not then, other African Nations or OPEC will provide OIL. --> The countries supporting Russian oil are forced to buy Oil at a higher price as Russia won't stop its profits.

Russian Developments

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  Russia is holding major military exercises involving China and India as President Vladimir Putin pushes back against attempts by the US and its allies to isolate him over his invasion of Ukraine.  More than 50,000 troops and 5,000 pieces of military equipment, including more than 140 aircraft and 60 warships, are due to participate in the week-long Vostok-2022 war games that start Thursday in Russia's far east, including naval drills in the Sea of Japan. Reasons for China and India to attend the drills:  India, which has previously participated in the exercises, has avoided taking sides over Russia's war in Ukraine, partly because of its reliance on Moscow as its primary weapons supplier amid persistent border tensions with neighbouring China and Pakistan.   The Defense Ministry in Beijing said China's army, and naval forces are taking part in the drills, which aim to strengthen military coordination. Along with them, the soviet nations such as Belarus and Kazakhstan are