Italy expected to elect its first female Prime Minister

Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy), could become the first female prime minister in the history of Italy in an anticipated right-wing surge to the polls on Sunday.

Europe's attention is trained on Rome, where this potential first is joined by fears that Meloni would restore an ideology not seen in Italy since World War II. Pollsters expect the Sunday vote to deliver a conservative coalition to parliament, with the government guided by Meloni as premier.

Past: The archconservative of Italian politics, Meloni entered politics at age 15 in 1992, joining the neo-fascist Social Movement, a group with pronounced sympathy for Benito Mussolini, the country's dictator from 1925 to 1945. Fratelli d'Italia's party imagery evokes Italy's fascist past, but Meloni has rejected the associations, framing her proposed conservative coalition as a nationalist project that would recover power from Brussels.

Causes: A Meloni government would represent a significant change in tide from the technocrat government held together by former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi. Meloni's party was the only opponent to Draghi's coalition, which fell in July after maintaining a hardline on consensus issues in the European Union – including sending arms to Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.

Observers say EU battle lines may be realigning, with Italy, one of the bloc's founders and its third-largest economy, cozying more to Hungary and Poland than Germany and France. The collapse of Draghi's government in July threw Italy into a familiar political tumult, and a splintered left wing, including the center-left Democratic Party and the populist Five-Star Movement, has not coalesced with a pre-election pact. The Democratic Party leader, Enrico Letta, has trailed consistently in polls and is expected to split ballots cast by liberals with voters for Five-Star and a "Third Pole" coalition.

Effects: The right wing, though, has joined forces. Polls indicate Meloni will be the leading conservative finisher on Sunday; her government's junior partners would be Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, and Silvio Berlusconi, the head of the center-right Forza Italia. Berlusconi, the media tycoon, and conservative firebrand rose to power in 1994 and won three stints as prime minister, the longest serving premier in the post-war era. Salvini has been seen as the conservative in the wings of Palazzo Chigi, while Meloni had led the smaller Fratelli d'Italia, distant from the mainstream.

Analysts credit Meloni's surge past them to her resolute anti-Putin, pro-NATO posture. Berlusconi, a longtime Putin friend, has outright echoed the Kremlin's war narrative. Salvini has wavered on continuing to send arms to Kyiv.


What's in it for you: Italy's future depends on what the pool's result on Sunday turns out to be in favor of Giorgia Meloni and whether will she become the first female prime minister in the history of Italy.

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