The Armenia-Azerbaijan War

 The roots of this war now date back to the Soviet Era itself. This conflict clearly represented the type of era which was the basis of the dissolution of the USSR from the 1980s to 1994. Repeated conflicts have arisen almost every year between 2010 and 2020. Recently sparks have again started to spread after the Covid lockdown.

Causes: The Nograno-Karabakh is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nograno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians, and seven surrounding districts, occupied chiefly by Azerbaijanis until their war during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. The conflict has its origins in the early 20th century, but the present conflict began in 1988 when the Karabakh Armenians demanded transferring Karabakh from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s which later transformed into a low-intensity conflict until a 4-day escalation in April 2016 and then into another full-scale war in 2020.

Effects: This war attracts the international attention of the superpowers. Such as the Ukraine-Russia war wasn't between Russia and Ukraine, but rather between the emerging powers of China and Russia, against the suppression of OPEC, NATO and the USA, this war is just a chess board for the Superpowers. In collective history, less than 1000 civilians have died, but for these 2 nations, the effect of the entire region is rather about finding and adapting to their native Identity. 

Here Russia's supposedly neutral behaviour (partly Armenian) and Turkey's (Former Ottoman Empire) support for Azerbaijan, will have fewer effects than intended. Russia is currently counting on Turkey not to supply oil via Turkey's reserves to Europe and finally teach NATO a lesson, giving Turkey an upper hand. Meanwhile, the USA and Iran, which unnecessarily try to mediate things, slowly add oil to the fire, by supplying arms and creating unrest.

What is in it for you: Azerbaijan's export of oil and crude to Italy could have an impact if a ceasefire doesn't happen soon enough adding to the pressure after France stopped its export of oil to Italy. The imports of Azerbaijan including wheat could cause a shortage of food. Armenia, on the other hand, will have to import more oil from Russia itself and will have to compromise it in form of copper exports.

Support Links:

Bloomberg Coverage

The NY Times coverage

Wikipedia history

Azerbaijan exports and imports

Armenia's exports and imports

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